Climatic projections facilitate the adjustment to the climatic change
von 
Umweltbundesamt
30.01.2007 - 1:00 - Politics & Society
(prcenter.de) Dessau - up to the end of this century it could become noticeably warmer in Germany because of the climatic change altogether. First results of a climatic model of the company Climate & Environment Consulting potsdam GmbH (CEC) point this to the regional climatic modelling on behalf the Federal Office for Environment Protection (UBA): Up to the end of the century the model calculations - in relation to the years 1961 to 1990 - result in a rise of the temperatures between 1,8 and 2,3 degrees Celsius. The strongest heating up could do it in the north of Germany (outside of the coastal range) as well as in the Voralpen to give. In the case of the precipitation a less uniform picture results. The regional differences might be large here: For example those calculated researcher inside and researchers for anyway already dry north German low country up to 50 per cent of fewer precipitation. In the mountain regions against it particularly the precipitation might increase on the average in the winter. The president of the Federal Office for Environment Protection, Professor Dr. Andreas troughs: „The model calculations clarify, which might come with the climatic change on us. That helps us to adjust us in time to these inevitable consequences. “With the available climatic projections of the model MOVE (weather conditions-based regionalization method) can better be estimated, how the climatic change in Germany can affect itself regionally and which regions could be particularly concerned. Climatic models supply however no forecasts over the climate of the future. Climatic models represent only possible climatic developments and inform in such a way about risks of the regional climatic development.
For the rain model calculations the Potsdamer took researcher inside and researcher as a basis two different scenarios for in the future possible, predominantly greenhouse gas missions caused by humans: A first „higher emission scenario “proceeds - among other things - from a development with strong economic growth and a further use of the fossil sources of energy coal, oil and gas, global oriented. At the same time the portion of climaticfriendly, renewable energies rises - as biomass, wind and water power as well as Geothermie in this scenario. The second, „low emission scenario “is based - among other things - on an intensified introduction more emissionsarmer and to resources of careful techniques. Also „the niederigere Emissionssenario “would not be suitable however to prevent abrupt climatic changes and threatening unreversible climatic sequences.
On basis of both emission scenarios results in the climatic model MOVE clearly higher daily average temperature levels in Germany up to the end of this century. The higher emission scenario shows Germany over completely for the years 2071 to 2100 one averaged temperature rise of 2,3 degrees Celsius in relation to the years 1961 to 1990. With the lower emission scenario the temperature levels on the average still rise by 1,8 degrees Celsius. The strongest heating up those expect researcher inside and researchers in the entire north of Germany - with exception of the coastal regions - and in the Voralpenraum. A smaller heating up shows up in the north and Baltic Sea coast, in the central low mountain ranges and in the east Bayerns.
For the precipitation the rain projections for both Emissionszenarien exhibit tendencies regionally moving in opposite directions in the summer and winter: In the summer the precipitation decreases Germany far on the average by 22 per cent (higher emission scenario) or by 17 per cent (lower emission scenario). The computations for the northeastGerman low country show the strongest decrease of the summer precipitation: after the higher emission scenario over up to 50 per cent. Besides MOVES for this region also an increase below average of the middle precipitation determined in the winter.
In the winter the middle precipitation increases Germany far by 30 per cent (higher emission scenario) or by 19 per cent (lower emission scenario). Of it particularly the mountain regions are concerned. The higher emission scenario shows maximum increases of up to 80 per cent within the range of the Eifel and Hunsrück. Also for the Odenwald, the Spessart, the Rhön and Lower Franconia the precipitation rises over in parts over 70 per cent.
The UBA holds it on the basis of the new realizations for urgently necessary to lead a country wide and technically founded discussion - crosswise over all economic sectors away - to the effects of the climatic change and the possibilities of adaptation. In October 2006 the strategy for adjustment to the climatic change, German of Federal Secretary of the Environment Sigmar Gabriel started preparation of one „, “offers for this a good platform.
The background paper contains more information „new results to regional climatic changes - the statistic regionalization model MOVE “under http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/uba-info-presse/hintergrund/Regionale-Klimaaenderungen.pdf. The complete study „Neuentw icklung von regional hoch aufgelösten Wetterlagen für Deutschland und Bereitstellung regionaler Klimaszenarien mit dem Regionalisierungsmodell WETTREG 2005 auf der Basis von globalen Klimasimulationen mit ECHAM5/MPI – OM T63L31 2010 bis 2100 für die SRES – Szenarien B1, A1B und A2“ ist unter www.umweltbundesamt.de/klimaschutz erhältlich.
Contact Informations
Martin Ittershagen (responsible) coworker/inside: Anke Döpke, Dieter Leutert, Fotini Mavromati, Theresa Pfeifer
Address: P.o. box 1406, 06813 Dessau telephone: 0340/21 03-2122, -2827, -2250, -2318, -3927 E-Mail: pressestelle@uba.de
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